Hungarians are casting ballots in a parliamentary election that could topple Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power, reshaping the country’s ties with the EU, Moscow, and Washington. The EU’s longest-serving leader trails in polls against Péter Magyar, a former elite member of Orbán’s Fidesz party, in an unprecedented challenge.
By midday Sunday, turnout hit a record 37.98%, with about 876,000 more voters participating compared to the 2022 elections, according to the national election office.
Orbán, 62, who has swept the last four elections, voted early in Budapest, telling reporters he had come to win and that the country must stay united to resist “approaching crises.” Magyar, 45, said Hungarians were choosing between “east or west, propaganda or honest public discourse, corruption or clean public life.”
Most polls put Magyar’s centre-right Tisza party in the lead after he crisscrossed the country, holding up to six rallies a day. Analysts caution that undecided voters, Hungarians abroad, and alleged vote buying could sway the result.
The election tests how deeply Orbán’s political system is embedded, after he spent over a decade transforming Hungary into a “petri dish for illiberalism.” He rewrote election laws to benefit Fidesz, placed loyalists in control of an estimated 80% of the media, and clamped down on dissenting voices.
Right-wing leaders globally have rallied behind Orbán. This week, US Vice-President JD Vance visited Budapest for two days, saying his aim was to help Orbán win. Donald Trump repeatedly endorsed Orbán, vowing on social media Friday to bring US “economic might” to Hungary if Orbán is re-elected. Months earlier, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu made clear they were backing Orbán.
Orbán argues Hungary’s biggest threat is the war in Ukraine and he alone can keep peace, while Magyar focuses on domestic issues, pledging to crack down on corruption, repair strained EU relations, and fund crumbling public services.
Questions swirl over Orbán’s government and its relationship with Moscow amid allegations of Russian interference in the election. Audio appeared to suggest a minister shared confidential EU information with the Russian government. Orbán’s government cites leaks—including a transcript where Orbán reportedly told Vladimir Putin “I am at your service”—as evidence of foreign interference.
Analysts point to three possible outcomes: a Magyar majority that Orbán accepts; a Magyar majority that Orbán does not accept; or an Orbán majority. If Magyar wins, observers will watch whether he gains a simple majority or a super-majority of at least two-thirds of the 199 parliamentary seats. A super-majority would allow Tisza to amend the constitution and laws, reverse Orbán’s changes, and potentially unlock EU funds.
Most polls pointed to a big win for Magyar and Tisza, said Zoltán Kész, a former Fidesz member. “If we were talking about a normal democracy, I would say they could have a super-majority in parliament because of the polls that we’re seeing,” he said. “But this is not a normal democracy.” Fidesz’s transformation of Hungary’s electoral system and gerrymandering of its 106 voting districts will require Tisza to gain an estimated 5% more votes than Fidesz for even a simple majority.
At a Friday night rally for Orbán in Székesfehérvár, a city of about 100,000 in central Hungary, hundreds waved flags and cheered. “I’m so happy to be here,” said Cecília, 78. “He’s the best leader in the world.” Sunday marked her fifth time voting for Orbán since 2010. “Viktor Orbán will win, of course, with a super-majority,” she said.
Others were more circumspect. Sándor, 69, said: “When it comes to polls, it depends on who does them, but the situation does seem tense. I’m worried for him [Orbán]. He seems tired.” Scattered in the crowd were Magyar supporters. “I was curious to hear the prime minister speak,” said Richárd, 27. He noted a fundamental difference: “For 16 years, Fidesz has been campaigning on hatred and fear. While Tisza has been trying to express hope at all of their events.”
The result will be closely watched by the Maga movement and the global far right, many of whom have long cited Orbán as an inspiration and sought to follow his playbook.
